SIGMA ALERT — HIGH RISK LEVEL
China · Issued 2026-08-26 · SIGMA 70.1 / 100
2026-08-26 · SIGMA Alert
China financial risk — property sector Evergrande contagion, LGFV local government debt, shadow banking.
SIGMA Score
70.1
Accumulation
Phantom Score
43
narrative divergence
Kairos Urgency
LOW
21.6d remaining
Velocity
↑ Rising
risk trajectory
Closest Historical Analog
Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock
2022-03 · SIGMA-equivalent: 61
Russia invades Ukraine. Gas supply to Europe threatened. Wheat +40%, Energy +80%.
Current reading exceeds Russia-Ukraine Commodity Shock level by 9 points.
Historical Outcome
EU energy rationing. German industrial production -6%. Inflation peaked at 10.6% in EU.
Risk Dimensions
Sovereign/Fiscal
58
Banking Stress
72
Currency Risk
48
Political Risk
65
Contagion Risk
78
Active SIGMA Signals
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