1 · Compile
Strict structured contract. Unsupported or ambiguous forecasts are refused with machine-readable reasons.
Noosphere Truth Infrastructure
Forecast Compiler
Narrative cannot enter the verified track record. Every accepted forecast carries an observable metric, baseline, probability, deadline, independent settlement adapter and immutable Merkle proof.
Accepted · 30d
0
Rejected · 30d
0
Falsifiability
0%
AI-linked batches
0
Public receipts
Recent immutable batches
No committed batches yet. An empty record is shown honestly.
2 · Commit
Claim identity, provenance, evidence references and batch Merkle root become immutable receipts.
3 · Settle
Independent ECB, FRED point-in-time or market observations produce CONFIRMED, REFUTED or UNSETTLEABLE outcomes.
Free observed settlement
FRED point-in-time contracts
Every macro outcome is read as it was knowable by the settlement date. CPI is converted from the published index to year-over-year inflation; the 10Y–2Y spread is converted from percentage points to basis points. Units are never guessed and later vintages cannot leak backward.
FRED:US.yield_10y
US 10-Year Treasury constant-maturity rate
DGS10 · identity
FRED:US.spread
US 10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury spread
T10Y2Y · pct_to_bps
FRED:US.cpi
US CPI inflation
CPIAUCSL · cpi_yoy
FRED:US.unemployment
US unemployment rate
UNRATE · identity
FRED:US.policy_rate
US effective federal funds rate monthly average
FEDFUNDS · identity
Probability semantics firewall
A percentage must say what it means.
Event probabilities may be compiled only when an observable event, baseline, deadline and independent settlement source exist. Scenario weights, model confidence, structural risk scores and descriptive statistics remain useful, but are cryptographically barred from the scored forecast ledger.
Evidence before activation
World Bank GDP Vintage Vault
Noosphere now archives annual GDP values and every later revision for 18 exact country contracts. Historical settlement remains deliberately disabled until the claim language binds an explicit annual reference period; current revised history is never passed off as what was known in the past.
Countries
18
Archive mode
Point-in-time
Retroactive scoring
Blocked