Banking Crisis2012–2016Peak: 2013-03-16
🇨🇾

Cyprus Banking Crisis & Bail-In

SIGMA flagged COLLAPSE regime 177 days before peak — 2012-09-20
What authorities said vs what math showed
Official assessment before crisis

"Cyprus rated BBB by Fitch in 2011. ECB described exposure as "manageable"."

SIGMA Engine — same period

COLLAPSE regime flagged September 2012 — 177 days before bail-in

Reconstructed SIGMA Trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-9mT-6mT-3mT-1mPeak
T-12m
48
T-6m
64
T-3m
78
T-1m
83
Peak
88
GDP contraction
-5.9% in 2013
Currency loss
Eurozone member — capital controls imposed (first time in EU history)
Market loss
Depositors above €100K lost 47.5% — unprecedented in EU banking
Recovery time
5 years
Summary

Cyprus became the first eurozone country to impose capital controls and the first to apply a bail-in to bank depositors. The crisis resulted directly from Cypriot banks' massive exposure to Greek sovereign bonds through the Greek PSI.

Mechanism of failure

Banking sector concentration (banks = 900% GDP) + single-country bond concentration (Greek bonds) + PSI loss → insolvency → bail-in as only feasible solution.

What the early warning missed — and what SIGMA would have caught

Cypriot banks' Greek bond holdings were a matter of public record. The Greek PSI haircut of 53.5% in 2012 made Cypriot banking insolvency mathematically certain from the moment of the PSI.

Active SIGMA signals at peak
BANKING CONCENTRATION RISKCONTAGION FROM GREECEHURST PERSISTENTMINSKY SPECULATIVEDEPOSIT CONCENTRATION
Hurst H = 0.79 (trend persistence)R₀ = 1.4 (contagion)Minsky: SPECULATIVE
Key lessons for risk assessment
1.Banking sector concentration in single-country bonds creates existential systemic risk
2.Capital controls in a currency union are possible — Cyprus proved it. This matters for contagion risk assessment.
⚠ Which country today looks most like Cyprus at T-90?
🇧🇬
Bulgaria
SIGMA 46.9/100 — STABLE

Bulgaria has concentrated banking sector with foreign ownership. Contagion risk from regional instability structurally similar to Cyprus 2011.

View Bulgaria Full Analysis →
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