Cyprus Banking Crisis & Bail-In
"Cyprus rated BBB by Fitch in 2011. ECB described exposure as "manageable"."
COLLAPSE regime flagged September 2012 — 177 days before bail-in
Cyprus became the first eurozone country to impose capital controls and the first to apply a bail-in to bank depositors. The crisis resulted directly from Cypriot banks' massive exposure to Greek sovereign bonds through the Greek PSI.
Banking sector concentration (banks = 900% GDP) + single-country bond concentration (Greek bonds) + PSI loss → insolvency → bail-in as only feasible solution.
Cypriot banks' Greek bond holdings were a matter of public record. The Greek PSI haircut of 53.5% in 2012 made Cypriot banking insolvency mathematically certain from the moment of the PSI.
Bulgaria has concentrated banking sector with foreign ownership. Contagion risk from regional instability structurally similar to Cyprus 2011.
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