Noosphere Prime · Crisis Archive
What SIGMA Would Have Shown
Every major financial crisis since 1997, retroactively analyzed through the SIGMA Engine v5.0. See the reconstructed score trajectory — and which country today looks most similar to each crisis at T-90 days.
10 crises analyzed
SHA256-verified methodology
Average lead time: 119 days
🇺🇸
Banking CrisisCatastrophic2007–2009
Lehman Brothers Collapse & Global Financial Crisis
SIGMA lead time
185d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
94/100
GDP loss
-4.3% US
Currency loss
USD safe haven — oth
Recovery
4 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇺🇸United StatesSIGMA 45.6/100
🇬🇷
Sovereign DefaultCatastrophic2010–2018
Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis
SIGMA lead time
98d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
93/100
GDP loss
-26% cumulative 2010–2015
Currency loss
Eurozone member — no
Recovery
12 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇮🇹ItalySIGMA 54.5/100
🇹🇷
Currency CollapseSevere2018–2021
Turkish Lira Crisis & Currency Collapse
SIGMA lead time
82d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
91/100
GDP loss
-2.8% in 2019
Currency loss
Lira -43% vs USD in
Recovery
5 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇹🇷TurkeySIGMA 60.5/100
🇦🇷
Sovereign DefaultCatastrophic1998–2002
Argentine Sovereign Default & Peso Collapse
SIGMA lead time
190d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
95/100
GDP loss
-10.9% in 2002
Currency loss
Peso -75% after conv
Recovery
6 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇷🇴RomaniaSIGMA 56.5/100
🇺🇦
Geopolitical ShockCatastrophic2022–present
Ukraine Wartime Economic Stress
SIGMA lead time
87d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
92/100
GDP loss
-29.2% in 2022
Currency loss
Hryvnia -26% officia
Recovery
10 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇷🇸SerbiaSIGMA 52.0/100
🇮🇸
Banking CrisisCatastrophic2008–2011
Icelandic Banking Collapse
SIGMA lead time
83d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
91/100
GDP loss
-6.6% in 2009
Currency loss
Krona -50% vs EUR
Recovery
4 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇦🇹AustriaSIGMA 44.2/100
🇷🇺
Sovereign DefaultSevere1997–1999
Russian Ruble Crisis & GKO Default
SIGMA lead time
99d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
92/100
GDP loss
-5.3% in 1998
Currency loss
Ruble -75% vs USD in
Recovery
3 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇭🇺HungarySIGMA 53.1/100
🇨🇾
Banking CrisisSevere2012–2016
Cyprus Banking Crisis & Bail-In
SIGMA lead time
177d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
88/100
GDP loss
-5.9% in 2013
Currency loss
Eurozone member — ca
Recovery
5 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇧🇬BulgariaSIGMA 46.9/100
🇱🇰
Sovereign DefaultCatastrophic2021–2023
Sri Lanka Sovereign Default & Economic Collapse
SIGMA lead time
94d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
93/100
GDP loss
-7.8% in 2022
Currency loss
Rupee -44% vs USD in
Recovery
7 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇷🇸SerbiaSIGMA 52.0/100
🇱🇧
Banking CrisisCatastrophic2019–present
Lebanon Financial System Collapse
SIGMA lead time
108d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
94/100
GDP loss
-21.4% in 2020
Currency loss
Lira -95% on paralle
Recovery
15 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇷🇴RomaniaSIGMA 56.5/100
🇮🇪
Banking CrisisCatastrophic2010–2014
Irish Banking Collapse & EU Bailout
SIGMA lead time
143d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
91/100
GDP loss
-6.4% in 2009
Currency loss
Eurozone — no devalu
Recovery
5 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇦🇹AustriaSIGMA 44.2/100
🇵🇹
Sovereign DefaultSevere2011–2014
Portuguese Sovereign Debt Crisis
SIGMA lead time
127d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
85/100
GDP loss
-1.8% 2011
Currency loss
Eurozone member
Recovery
6 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇵🇹PortugalSIGMA 46.9/100
🇻🇪
Currency CollapseCatastrophic2014–2021
Venezuelan Hyperinflation & Economic Collapse
SIGMA lead time
1095d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
96/100
GDP loss
-35% cumulative 2014-2019
Currency loss
Bolívar lost 99.999%
Recovery
15 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇺🇦None — extreme case, no current analog at same severitySIGMA 64.5/100
🇲🇽
Currency CollapseSevere1994–1995
Mexican Tequila Crisis — Peso Devaluation
SIGMA lead time
66d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
84/100
GDP loss
-6.2% in 1995
Currency loss
Peso -50% vs USD in
Recovery
2 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇷🇴RomaniaSIGMA 56.5/100
🇹🇭
Currency CollapseCatastrophic1997–1998
Thai Baht Crisis — Asian Financial Crisis Origin
SIGMA lead time
109d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
87/100
GDP loss
-10.5% in 1998
Currency loss
Baht -55% vs USD
Recovery
4 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇹🇷TurkeySIGMA 60.5/100
🇭🇺
Currency CollapseSevere2008–2012
Hungarian Forint Crisis & IMF Rescue
SIGMA lead time
94d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
87/100
GDP loss
-6.7% in 2009
Currency loss
Forint -30% vs EUR i
Recovery
5 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇭🇺HungarySIGMA 53.1/100
🇷🇴
Sovereign DefaultSignificant2009–2013
Romanian Economic Crisis & IMF Program
SIGMA lead time
144d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
77/100
GDP loss
-7.1% in 2009
Currency loss
Leu -25% vs EUR in 2
Recovery
4 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇷🇴RomaniaSIGMA 56.5/100
🇵🇰
Sovereign DefaultSevere2022–2024
Pakistan External Debt Crisis & IMF Bailout
SIGMA lead time
169d
before consensus
SIGMA trajectory — 12 months before peak
T-12 monthsT-6mT-3mPeak
Peak SIGMA
88/100
GDP loss
+0.3% (barely positive
Currency loss
Rupee -42% vs USD in
Recovery
4 years
Most similar TODAY →
🇷🇸SerbiaSIGMA 52.0/100
All Noosphere Scores are retroactively calculated using publicly available historical data and the SIGMA Engine v5.0 methodology. These are not predictions that were made at the time — they are mathematical reconstructions showing what the engine would have computed. SHA256 methodology hash available at https://noosphereprime.space/methodology. Not investment advice.