VERIFIED RECORD · SIGMA ENGINE
The track record, hashed before the outcome.
Every SIGMA prediction is SHA256-anchored at generation time. At T+30, T+60 and T+90, same-model checks test reproducibility, while only declared external observations may count as confirmed or missed. No cherry-picking, no retroactive framing.
What is being predicted: sovereign regime transitions— the structural phase of a country’s financial cycle over a 30–90 day window. Not a price forecast. A collapse regime for Germany means fragility indicators are severely elevated, not that the DAX drops tomorrow. Markets diverging from fundamentals is itself the signal.
Daily since 2026-08-18 · 8 batches · 200 recent predictions on file
The ledger opened on 4 June 2026. Every prediction is anchored at generation time; external settlement begins only when a declared observable series can rule on the claim. An empty observed record that cannot be backfilled is worth more than a full one that could have been.
SIGMA projections of 2026-08-25
22 entities · SHA256 anchored| ENTITY | SIGMA | REGIME | T+90 CALL | HASH | T+30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AustriaCOUNTRY | 43.4 | STABLE | STABLE | #1678664e | PENDING |
| JapanCOUNTRY | 58.7 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #fdcfcabd | PENDING |
| FranceCOUNTRY | 61.2 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #2fe7f9ed | PENDING |
| RomaniaCOUNTRY | 74.3 | CRITICAL | CRITICAL | #c4914123 | PENDING |
| Technology & AI SectorSECTOR | 46.7 | STABLE | STABLE | #ec66a733 | PENDING |
| European UnionCOUNTRY | 51.8 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #001bf941 | PENDING |
| Sovereign DebtSECTOR | 54.4 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #6385a116 | PENDING |
| ItalyCOUNTRY | 67.3 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #8be06516 | PENDING |
| GermanyCOUNTRY | 47.4 | STABLE | STABLE | #80002c58 | PENDING |
| GreeceCOUNTRY | 63.7 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #1e7d14fa | PENDING |
| PolandCOUNTRY | 44.9 | STABLE | STABLE | #7c2cc6c5 | PENDING |
| ChinaCOUNTRY | 70.1 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #70ce8b45 | PENDING |
| UkraineCOUNTRY | 90.1 | COLLAPSE | CRITICAL | #69423896 | PENDING |
| SpainCOUNTRY | 58.8 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #63956993 | PENDING |
| Emerging MarketsSECTOR | 55.0 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #5173e0d8 | PENDING |
| IndiaCOUNTRY | 61.2 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #30ebcd3e | PENDING |
| NetherlandsCOUNTRY | 43.3 | STABLE | STABLE | #a39d3555 | PENDING |
| PortugalCOUNTRY | 57.5 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #56ab2c89 | PENDING |
| CzechiaCOUNTRY | 46.4 | STABLE | STABLE | #85dcf530 | PENDING |
| SwitzerlandCOUNTRY | 28.5 | STABLE | STABLE | #039bbe4a | PENDING |
| United StatesCOUNTRY | 56.0 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #8fc9efa3 | PENDING |
| SerbiaCOUNTRY | 61.6 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #fd4d06df | PENDING |
How the predictions are made
Regime predictions use Markov transition matrices over the platform’s structural-risk state. Same-model recomputation tests determinism only. Brier score and accuracy are published only when a declared external series supplies the outcome. Every prediction is hashed at generation time, so the original call cannot be modified after the fact.