VERIFIED RECORD · SIGMA ENGINE
The track record, hashed before the outcome.
Every SIGMA prediction is SHA256-anchored at generation time. At T+30, T+60 and T+90, same-model checks test reproducibility, while only declared external observations may count as confirmed or missed. No cherry-picking, no retroactive framing.
What is being predicted: sovereign regime transitions — the structural phase of a country’s financial cycle over a 30–90 day window. Not a price forecast. A collapse regime for Germany means fragility indicators are severely elevated, not that the DAX drops tomorrow. Markets diverging from fundamentals is itself the signal.
Daily since 2026-10-06 · 8 batches · 200 recent predictions on file
The ledger opened on 4 June 2026. Every prediction is anchored at generation time; external settlement begins only when a declared observable series can rule on the claim. An empty observed record that cannot be backfilled is worth more than a full one that could have been.
SIGMA projections of 2026-10-13
22 entities · SHA256 anchored| ENTITY | SIGMA | REGIME | T+90 CALL | HASH | T+30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpainCOUNTRY | 60.1 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #49c2c050 | PENDING |
| SwitzerlandCOUNTRY | 31.8 | STABLE | STABLE | #be47a653 | PENDING |
| AustriaCOUNTRY | 45.5 | STABLE | STABLE | #4d2d9a5c | PENDING |
| PortugalCOUNTRY | 59.0 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #18004dfa | PENDING |
| European UnionCOUNTRY | 55.2 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #f09aad54 | PENDING |
| CzechiaCOUNTRY | 47.5 | STABLE | STABLE | #cb817e1e | PENDING |
| IndiaCOUNTRY | 63.9 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #5b5dee00 | PENDING |
| ItalyCOUNTRY | 67.4 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #1f6a0f18 | PENDING |
| FranceCOUNTRY | 63.1 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #7a6f7b9a | PENDING |
| United StatesCOUNTRY | 53.9 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #08888356 | PENDING |
| ChinaCOUNTRY | 73.6 | CRITICAL | CRITICAL | #91ee67aa | PENDING |
| UkraineCOUNTRY | 92.2 | COLLAPSE | COLLAPSE | #b877c30e | PENDING |
| GermanyCOUNTRY | 49.8 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #295cf343 | PENDING |
| BulgariaCOUNTRY | 56.7 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #7355c972 | PENDING |
| RomaniaCOUNTRY | 76.2 | CRITICAL | CRITICAL | #4928f496 | PENDING |
| JapanCOUNTRY | 59.7 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #3f6c0ebd | PENDING |
| GreeceCOUNTRY | 64.4 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #d9b38bab | PENDING |
| HungaryCOUNTRY | 67.0 | CRITICAL | CRITICAL | #cf0b14f2 | PENDING |
| Energy & CommoditiesSECTOR | 51.7 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #4ad9de04 | PENDING |
| PolandCOUNTRY | 47.7 | STABLE | STABLE | #eb429e62 | PENDING |
| TurkeyCOUNTRY | 83.9 | CRITICAL | CRITICAL | #16477b0d | PENDING |
| Emerging MarketsSECTOR | 56.6 | ACCUMULATION | ACCUMULATION | #b5c29d03 | PENDING |
How the predictions are made
Regime predictions use Markov transition matrices over the platform’s structural-risk state. Same-model recomputation tests determinism only. Brier score and accuracy are published only when a declared external series supplies the outcome. Every prediction is hashed at generation time, so the original call cannot be modified after the fact.