Prediction Track Record
Every SIGMA prediction is SHA256-anchored before the event. Verified automatically at T+30, T+60, T+90 days against real market data. No cherry-picking. No retroactive framing. The math stands publicly.
What is being predicted: SIGMA predicts sovereign regime transitions — the structural phase of a country's financial cycle (stable / accumulation / critical / collapse) over a 30–90 day forward window. This is not a short-term market price forecast. A "collapse regime" prediction for Germany means structural fragility indicators are severely elevated; it does not mean DAX drops tomorrow. Markets frequently diverge from fundamentals — that divergence is itself the signal.
We launched the public prediction ledger on 4 June 2026. Every prediction is SHA256-anchored at generation time — this is verifiable and immutable. Outcome verification starts automatically at T+30 days.
This is not a weakness — it is the point. A system that publishes predictions with cryptographic proof before the event, then verifies them publicly, cannot retroactively claim accuracy it did not have. The ledger will be as valuable on day 31 as it is empty on day 1.
Regime column = predicted structural phase at T+90. Not a price call — a structural fragility classification.
Regime predictions use Markov chain transition matrices calibrated on Reinhart-Rogoff historical data (800+ sovereign risk events).
Brier Score measures probabilistic calibration: how well predicted probabilities match observed frequencies.
All predictions SHA256-anchored at generation time — impossible to retroactively modify.
See the complete SIGMA breakdown, causal chains, and 90-day confidence intervals for all 22 countries.