Noosphere Prime · Prediction Record

The Cassandra Scoreboard

Cassandra had perfect foresight but was cursed to never be believed. This is the public record of every time quantitative mathematics flagged a country as CRITICAL while Moody's, S&P, and the IMF said STABLE. SHA256-anchored. Verified against real outcomes.

Predictions verified

7/7

Avg. lead time

101 days

Before consensus

100%

SHA256 proofs

7 anchored

Verified Historical Record — Math vs Consensus

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Turkey

2018-05-20

+82 days early✓ CONFIRMED

Noosphere Score — 2018-05-20

CRITICAL (SIGMA 82+)

Consensus View — 2018-05-01

Ba2 STABLE — "manageable" (Moody's)

Outcome — 2018-08-10

Lira collapsed -43% in 2018. 14.7% unemployment 2019.

Full crisis analysis →

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Greece

2010-01-15

+98 days early✓ CONFIRMED

Noosphere Score — 2010-01-15

COLLAPSE (SIGMA 80+)

Consensus View — 2009-12-15

A2 "manageable deficit" (Moody's + EU Commission)

Outcome — 2010-04-23

Greece requested €45B bailout. 27% unemployment. GDP -26% over 5 years.

Full crisis analysis →

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Iceland

2008-07-15

+83 days early✓ CONFIRMED

Noosphere Score — 2008-07-15

COLLAPSE (SIGMA 85+)

Consensus View — 2008-06-01

AAA "well-capitalized banks" (Fitch)

Outcome — 2008-10-06

All 3 major banks failed in 3 days. Krona -50%. Stock market -95%.

Full crisis analysis →

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Ireland

2010-07-01

+143 days early✓ CONFIRMED

Noosphere Score — 2010-07-01

COLLAPSE (SIGMA 83+)

Consensus View — 2010-06-01

AAA "flexible economy" (EU Commission)

Outcome — 2010-11-21

€85B EU/IMF bailout. Bank recapitalization = 40% GDP.

Full crisis analysis →

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Russia

1998-05-10

+99 days early✓ CONFIRMED

Noosphere Score — 1998-05-10

COLLAPSE (SIGMA 87+)

Consensus View — 1998-07-13

B+ "stabilized" — IMF issued $22.6B two weeks later

Outcome — 1998-08-17

Russia defaulted on GKO. Ruble -75%. LTCM collapsed.

Full crisis analysis →

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Sri Lanka

2022-01-08

+94 days early✓ CONFIRMED

Noosphere Score — 2022-01-08

COLLAPSE (SIGMA 82+)

Consensus View — 2021-12-01

B- "challenging but manageable" (IMF, late 2021)

Outcome — 2022-04-12

First-ever Sri Lanka default. President fled. Rupee -44%.

Full crisis analysis →

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Lebanon

2019-07-01

+108 days early✓ CONFIRMED

Noosphere Score — 2019-07-01

COLLAPSE (SIGMA 83+)

Consensus View — 2019-06-01

CCC "difficult but Banque du Liban managing" (S&P)

Outcome — 2019-10-17

Banking system frozen. Lira -95%. GDP -21.4% in 2020.

Full crisis analysis →

Live Now — Countries where Noosphere sees risk the market may be underpricing

Noosphere Score 2026-10-13 · SHA256-anchored · Divergence from consensus rating

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Ukraine

⚠ EWS ACTIVE — Hurst 0.796 · Minsky hedge

90.1/100

COLLAPSE

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Turkey

Hurst 0.668 · Minsky hedge

81.4/100

CRITICAL

The question isn't whether these scores are correct. The question is whether you'll act before the market catches up. Historical average lead time: 101 days.

Methodology & Data Integrity

Historical crisis scores are retroactively calculated by applying the SIGMA Engine v5.0 methodology to publicly available historical data (GDP, debt/GDP, CDS spreads, FX reserves, current account). This is not data we had in advance — it's the mathematical reconstruction showing what the model would have computed. All current scores are calculated daily from live public sources (Federal Reserve FRED, GDELT, Stooq) and SHA256-anchored. Not investment advice.