{"meta":{"name":"Noosphere Prime SIGMA Dataset","version":"v5.0","description":"Deterministic 8-layer systemic risk scores for 22 sovereign entities and 6 global sectors. Every row is the figure as filed: hashed, dated, and settled at thirty days against an independent observation. Free for research and non-commercial use.","date":"2026-10-13","rowCount":28,"coverage":{"withOwnMarketSeries":21,"withoutOwnMarketSeries":7,"note":"A row whose input_class is not \"entity-series\" moves only with the global macro term and must not be read as entity-specific movement. The distinction is in every row."},"note":"This is the figure as recorded: computed once from the inputs named in `provenance`, hashed, dated, and settled at thirty days against an independent observation. It is not recomputed on request, so the number cited here is the number the platform is held to.","methodology":"https://noosphereprime.space/methodology","accountability":"https://noosphereprime.space/accountability","source":"https://noosphereprime.space","license":"CC BY 4.0 — attribution required: \"Noosphere Prime SIGMA Engine v5.0\"","citation":"Noosphere Prime. (2026). SIGMA Risk Dataset v5.0 [Data set]. https://noosphereprime.space/api/public/sigma-dataset","bibtex":"@dataset{noosphere2026sigma,\n  author = {{Noosphere Prime}},\n  title  = {SIGMA Risk Dataset},\n  year   = {2026},\n  url    = {https://noosphereprime.space/api/public/sigma-dataset}\n}","fields":{"sigma_score":"0-100 asymptotic systemic risk score (higher = more risk)","regime":"stable | accumulation | critical | collapse","r0_contagion":"Financial R₀ coefficient (>1.0 = spreads faster than containment)","hurst_h":"Hurst exponent (>0.6 = trend-persistent, <0.4 = mean-reverting)","csd_score":"Critical Slowing Down pre-crisis signal","minsky_phase":"hedge | speculative | ponzi | approaching | imminent","ews_active":"Early Warning Signal (CSD>10 AND Hurst>0.55 AND Hawkes>0.08)","hawkes_lambda":"Hawkes self-excitation intensity","prob_stable":"Filed probability of the stable regime at thirty days (%)","prob_accumulation":"Filed probability of the accumulation regime at thirty days (%)","prob_critical":"Filed probability of the critical regime at thirty days (%)","prob_collapse":"Filed probability of the collapse regime at thirty days (%)","input_class":"entity-series | series-unavailable | no-series-declared | unrecorded","input_symbol":"The instrument the series came from, where one applies","input_caveat":"The qualification this row carries, empty when it needs none","sha256":"Hash over the filed row, so a citation can be rechecked","settles_on":"The date this figure becomes checkable","settled_outcome":"How it resolved, empty until it has"}},"data":[{"type":"country","slug":"ukraine","name":"Ukraine","flag":"🇺🇦","sigma_score":92.2,"regime":"collapse","r0_contagion":0.081,"hurst_h":0.778,"csd_score":28,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":true,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":1,"prob_accumulation":1,"prob_critical":1,"prob_collapse":97.1,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"USDUAH=X","input_caveat":"","sha256":"b877c30ec44d73e41cd2b11b61cc9e23c8e0bcf0d297c045e3c72a612020f4e1","settles_on":"2026-11-12","settled_outcome":"","date":"2026-10-13"},{"type":"country","slug":"turkey","name":"Turkey","flag":"🇹🇷","sigma_score":83.9,"regime":"critical","r0_contagion":0.038,"hurst_h":0.77,"csd_score":28,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":false,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":0.5,"prob_accumulation":5.6,"prob_critical":93.4,"prob_collapse":0.5,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"USDTRY=X","input_caveat":"","sha256":"16477b0da045d891fab523f8ee0544c8e728f4b62f08a4b6fc4a10787c5da089","settles_on":"2026-11-12","settled_outcome":"","date":"2026-10-13"},{"type":"country","slug":"romania","name":"Romania","flag":"🇷🇴","sigma_score":76.2,"regime":"critical","r0_contagion":0.045,"hurst_h":0.755,"csd_score":28,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":false,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":0.5,"prob_accumulation":5.6,"prob_critical":93.4,"prob_collapse":0.5,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"EURRON=X","input_caveat":"","sha256":"4928f4967448bf47e73214484dab77512bf898a8aecb0bb3dbbd5720b6c58b69","settles_on":"2026-11-12","settled_outcome":"","date":"2026-10-13"},{"type":"country","slug":"china","name":"China","flag":"🇨🇳","sigma_score":73.6,"regime":"critical","r0_contagion":0.69,"hurst_h":0.748,"csd_score":28,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":false,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":0.5,"prob_accumulation":5.6,"prob_critical":93.4,"prob_collapse":0.5,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"000001.SS","input_caveat":"","sha256":"91ee67aa7125feb4cd0e1296f7727d05de20f21dc20e2f7cd72df03de8cda0bb","settles_on":"2026-11-12","settled_outcome":"","date":"2026-10-13"},{"type":"country","slug":"italy","name":"Italy","flag":"🇮🇹","sigma_score":67.4,"regime":"accumulation","r0_contagion":0.458,"hurst_h":0.706,"csd_score":20,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":false,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":2.3,"prob_accumulation":96.7,"prob_critical":1,"prob_collapse":0.1,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"FTSEMIB.MI","input_caveat":"","sha256":"1f6a0f18f8d58fe3d6c2472daee4ac7625707dbf34c85a5dcab20a0f3447ce2c","settles_on":"2026-11-12","settled_outcome":"","date":"2026-10-13"},{"type":"country","slug":"hungary","name":"Hungary","flag":"🇭🇺","sigma_score":67,"regime":"critical","r0_contagion":0.166,"hurst_h":0.561,"csd_score":14,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":false,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":0.5,"prob_accumulation":5.6,"prob_critical":93.4,"prob_collapse":0.5,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"EURHUF=X","input_caveat":"","sha256":"cf0b14f2740351a1e1d7b1efb51a0297a044b8bb8a73359006053beacca640b2","settles_on":"2026-11-12","settled_outcome":"","date":"2026-10-13"},{"type":"country","slug":"serbia","name":"Serbia","flag":"🇷🇸","sigma_score":64.8,"regime":"critical","r0_contagion":0.294,"hurst_h":0.391,"csd_score":14,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":false,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":0.5,"prob_accumulation":5.6,"prob_critical":93.4,"prob_collapse":0.5,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"EURRSD=X","input_caveat":"","sha256":"3600f92a491ff56d4f238d4163feff142ec1aea9788f42e8cb50db986f523b38","settles_on":"2026-11-12","settled_outcome":"","date":"2026-10-13"},{"type":"country","slug":"greece","name":"Greece","flag":"🇬🇷","sigma_score":64.4,"regime":"accumulation","r0_contagion":0.407,"hurst_h":0.729,"csd_score":28,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":false,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":2.3,"prob_accumulation":96.7,"prob_critical":1,"prob_collapse":0.1,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"GD.AT","input_caveat":"","sha256":"d9b38bab1d3cbac1ffff94999e9977d24bd3fcda95b3a641679409a2a812bada","settles_on":"2026-11-12","settled_outcome":"","date":"2026-10-13"},{"type":"country","slug":"india","name":"India","flag":"🇮🇳","sigma_score":63.9,"regime":"accumulation","r0_contagion":0.226,"hurst_h":0.718,"csd_score":20,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":false,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":2.3,"prob_accumulation":96.7,"prob_critical":1,"prob_collapse":0.1,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"^BSESN","input_caveat":"","sha256":"5b5dee002f8f8c3e90c54e77e473b2b771ba1619ee8039a5aed3f5ad15d0cb5c","settles_on":"2026-11-12","settled_outcome":"","date":"2026-10-13"},{"type":"country","slug":"france","name":"France","flag":"🇫🇷","sigma_score":63.1,"regime":"accumulation","r0_contagion":0.336,"hurst_h":0.713,"csd_score":20,"minsky_phase":"hedge","ews_active":false,"hawkes_lambda":0.1,"prob_stable":2.3,"prob_accumulation":96.7,"prob_critical":1,"prob_collapse":0.1,"input_class":"entity-series","input_symbol":"^F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