{"ok":true,"note":"Every forecasting instrument on this platform has a standing, and the standing is derived from the self-audit rather than asserted beside it — a state written by hand would drift within a week, and always in the flattering direction. An instrument may be ACTIVE only while it beats its own base rate by more than the noise; PROBATION means it is settling and has not shown an edge; UNMEASURABLE means the contract as written cannot produce evidence, so waiting will not help; RETIRED means it was withdrawn, and the reason, the date and the record it earned all stay. Deleting a losing instrument is the cheapest way to improve an accuracy figure and the surest way to make one worthless.","asOf":"2026-10-13T22:00:01.788Z","summary":{"total":4,"active":0,"probation":3,"unmeasurable":1,"retired":0,"admissible":[],"headline":"None of the 4 instruments has demonstrated skill against its own base rate. 3 are settling and have not yet shown an edge; 1 cannot be evaluated as its contract is written. No accuracy figure on this platform rests on a demonstrated result."},"instruments":[{"instrument":"BNR_RATE","state":"PROBATION","admissible":false,"from":[{"id":"falsifiability:BNR_RATE:degenerate","status":"INDETERMINATE"},{"id":"falsifiability:BNR_RATE:skill","status":"INDETERMINATE"}],"because":"Nothing has settled, so there is no evidence about this contract yet — either the forecasts have not come due or their settlements were withdrawn."},{"instrument":"INFLATION_DIRECTION","state":"PROBATION","admissible":false,"from":[{"id":"falsifiability:INFLATION_DIRECTION:degenerate","status":"INDETERMINATE"},{"id":"falsifiability:INFLATION_DIRECTION:skill","status":"INDETERMINATE"}],"because":"Nothing has settled, so there is no evidence about this contract yet — either the forecasts have not come due or their settlements were withdrawn."},{"instrument":"RON_EUR_DIRECTION","state":"PROBATION","admissible":false,"from":[{"id":"falsifiability:RON_EUR_DIRECTION:degenerate","status":"PASS"},{"id":"falsifiability:RON_EUR_DIRECTION:refutable","status":"PASS"},{"id":"falsifiability:RON_EUR_DIRECTION:skill","status":"INDETERMINATE"}],"because":"The edge over the base rate sits inside the noise band at this sample size. More settlements may resolve it."},{"instrument":"POLITICAL_RISK","state":"UNMEASURABLE","admissible":false,"from":[{"id":"falsifiability:POLITICAL_RISK:degenerate","status":"PASS"},{"id":"falsifiability:POLITICAL_RISK:refutable","status":"PASS"},{"id":"falsifiability:POLITICAL_RISK:skill","status":"INDETERMINATE"}],"because":"No base rate exists for this outcome, so skill cannot be computed however long it runs. A hit rate without a base rate is not a result."}],"retirements":[]}