{"ok":true,"entity":{"id":"sovereign:romania","kind":"SOVEREIGN","name":"Romania","asOf":"2025-12-31"},"binding":{"entityId":"sovereign:romania","breached":["RESPONSE"],"primitive":"LIQUIDITY","horizonDays":168.3,"bindsOn":"2027-03-31","consequence":"Already above the 60% of GDP reference value and rising: fiscal room is exhausted, and consolidation is assessed rather than chosen.","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","unmeasured":[],"noHorizon":["DEPENDENCIES"],"notBinding":[]},"claim":{"entityId":"sovereign:romania","statement":"Romania exhausts its liquid resources on or before 2027-03-31 (168.3 days) unless new resources arrive. Consequence: Stress-adjusted reserve cover falls below the three-month adequacy floor. If the buffer keeps draining, external payments or the exchange rate must absorb the adjustment.","settlesOn":"2027-03-31","settlementSource":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","refutedIf":"the buffer behind LIQUIDITY is observed at or above its 2025-12-31 level on 2027-03-31, measured from eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},"primitives":[{"primitive":"LIQUIDITY","bufferDays":168.3,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":168.3,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"Stress-adjusted reserve cover falls below the three-month adequacy floor. If the buffer keeps draining, external payments or the exchange rate must absorb the adjustment.","inputs":[{"name":"reserveImportCover","value":5.52846387485555,"unit":"months","source":"worldbank:FI.RES.TOTL.MO","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]},{"primitive":"REFINANCING","bufferDays":2169.1,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":2169.1,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"The whole standing stock has turned over at prevailing yields; the interest bill converges on the market rate.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":60.1,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"shortTerm","value":1.9,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:F31+F41","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"balance","value":-7.9,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/B9","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"interestPaid","value":2.8,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/D41PAY","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"marketYield","value":6.71,"unit":"pct","source":"ecb:IRS/M.RO.L.L40.CI.0000.RON.N.Z","asOf":"2026-09-30","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]},{"primitive":"DEPENDENCIES","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":false,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"IDENTIFIED","consequence":"Foreign bank funding is as concentrated as 3.5 equal counterparties, though 20 are reported. The largest, AT, holds 44.7% (54,405 mn USD); the three largest hold 85.1% between them. A retrenchment by the largest creditor withdraws that share of the external bank channel; whether the rest can replace it is a separate question this does not answer.","inputs":[{"name":"foreignBankClaimsUsdMillions","value":121690.44800000002,"unit":"USD mn","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.RO","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"effectiveCreditors","value":3.46,"unit":"count","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.RO","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"largestCreditorShare","value":44.7076,"unit":"pct","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.RO","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"}]},{"primitive":"RESPONSE","bufferDays":0,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":0,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"Already above the 60% of GDP reference value and rising: fiscal room is exhausted, and consolidation is assessed rather than chosen.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":60.1,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"annualChange","value":4.300000000000004,"unit":"pp_per_year","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD 2025-Q1→2026-Q1","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]}],"dependencies":[{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.288819,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"foreign bank funding equivalent to 3.5 equal creditors (20 reported, largest 44.7%) — bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.RO"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.1975756561271485,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"ESTIMATED","source":"derived from worldbank:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS (-7.9% of GDP, κ=2.5)"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.TERM_PREMIUM","affects":"REFINANCING","drainPerSigma":0.03161397670549085,"direction":"positive_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"short-term share 3.2% of stock (eurostat:F31+F41)"}],"transmits":[{"toEntityId":"bank-system:romania","channel":"SOVEREIGN_EXPOSURE","share":0.2764698290956431,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"ecb:CBD2/I3170/S13"}],"market":{"longTermYieldPct":6.71,"bundYieldPct":3.473,"spreadOverBundBps":324,"repricingGapBps":205,"yieldAsOf":"2026-09-30"},"note":"Horizons are buffer ÷ drain at the dates shown on each input. They say when a buffer runs out on the current trend, not that distress will occur: new financing or policy action resets them. Primitives reported as unmeasured are absent from the published statistics, not assumed to be comfortable — and a primitive under `noHorizon` is the other case entirely: it was measured, and the measurement is not a duration. Concentration is the standing example, since there is no rate at which a Herfindahl drains."}