{"ok":true,"entity":{"id":"sovereign:poland","kind":"SOVEREIGN","name":"Poland","asOf":"2025-12-31"},"binding":{"entityId":"sovereign:poland","breached":["RESPONSE"],"primitive":"LIQUIDITY","horizonDays":178.4,"bindsOn":"2027-04-10","consequence":"Already above the 60% of GDP reference value and rising: fiscal room is exhausted, and consolidation is assessed rather than chosen.","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","unmeasured":[],"noHorizon":["DEPENDENCIES"],"notBinding":[]},"claim":{"entityId":"sovereign:poland","statement":"Poland exhausts its liquid resources on or before 2027-04-10 (178.4 days) unless new resources arrive. Consequence: Stress-adjusted reserve cover falls below the three-month adequacy floor. If the buffer keeps draining, external payments or the exchange rate must absorb the adjustment.","settlesOn":"2027-04-10","settlementSource":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","refutedIf":"the buffer behind LIQUIDITY is observed at or above its 2025-12-31 level on 2027-04-10, measured from eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},"primitives":[{"primitive":"LIQUIDITY","bufferDays":178.4,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":178.4,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"Stress-adjusted reserve cover falls below the three-month adequacy floor. If the buffer keeps draining, external payments or the exchange rate must absorb the adjustment.","inputs":[{"name":"reserveImportCover","value":5.86142823595696,"unit":"months","source":"worldbank:FI.RES.TOTL.MO","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]},{"primitive":"REFINANCING","bufferDays":2561,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":2561,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"The whole standing stock has turned over at prevailing yields; the interest bill converges on the market rate.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":61.6,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"shortTerm","value":1.3,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:F31+F41","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"balance","value":-7.3,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/B9","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"interestPaid","value":2.5,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/D41PAY","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"marketYield","value":6.23,"unit":"pct","source":"ecb:IRS/M.PL.L.L40.CI.0000.PLN.N.Z","asOf":"2026-09-30","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]},{"primitive":"DEPENDENCIES","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":false,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"IDENTIFIED","consequence":"Foreign bank funding is as concentrated as 5.3 equal counterparties, though 19 are reported. The largest, DE, holds 27.2% (83,253 mn USD); the three largest hold 71.9% between them. A retrenchment by the largest creditor withdraws that share of the external bank channel; whether the rest can replace it is a separate question this does not answer.","inputs":[{"name":"foreignBankClaimsUsdMillions","value":306363.61999999994,"unit":"USD mn","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.PL","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"effectiveCreditors","value":5.25,"unit":"count","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.PL","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"largestCreditorShare","value":27.174599999999998,"unit":"pct","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.PL","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"}]},{"primitive":"RESPONSE","bufferDays":0,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":0,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"Already above the 60% of GDP reference value and rising: fiscal room is exhausted, and consolidation is assessed rather than chosen.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":61.6,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"annualChange","value":4.600000000000001,"unit":"pp_per_year","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD 2025-Q1→2026-Q1","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]}],"dependencies":[{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.190385,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"foreign bank funding equivalent to 5.3 equal creditors (19 reported, largest 27.2%) — bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.PL"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.02383408577126305,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"ESTIMATED","source":"derived from worldbank:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS (-1.0% of GDP, κ=2.5)"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.TERM_PREMIUM","affects":"REFINANCING","drainPerSigma":0.021103896103896104,"direction":"positive_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"short-term share 2.1% of stock (eurostat:F31+F41)"}],"transmits":[{"toEntityId":"bank-system:poland","channel":"SOVEREIGN_EXPOSURE","share":0.2968673779768307,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"ecb:CBD2/I3170/S13"}],"market":{"longTermYieldPct":6.23,"bundYieldPct":3.473,"spreadOverBundBps":276,"repricingGapBps":217,"yieldAsOf":"2026-09-30"},"note":"Horizons are buffer ÷ drain at the dates shown on each input. They say when a buffer runs out on the current trend, not that distress will occur: new financing or policy action resets them. Primitives reported as unmeasured are absent from the published statistics, not assumed to be comfortable — and a primitive under `noHorizon` is the other case entirely: it was measured, and the measurement is not a duration. Concentration is the standing example, since there is no rate at which a Herfindahl drains."}