{"ok":true,"entity":{"id":"sovereign:greece","kind":"SOVEREIGN","name":"Greece","asOf":"2025-12-31"},"binding":{"entityId":"sovereign:greece","breached":[],"primitive":"REFINANCING","horizonDays":16013.9,"bindsOn":"2070-08-17","consequence":"The whole standing stock has turned over at prevailing yields; the interest bill converges on the market rate.","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","unmeasured":["LIQUIDITY"],"noHorizon":["DEPENDENCIES"],"notBinding":["RESPONSE"]},"claim":{"entityId":"sovereign:greece","statement":"Greece exhausts its refinancing headroom on or before 2070-08-17 (16013.9 days) unless new resources arrive. Consequence: The whole standing stock has turned over at prevailing yields; the interest bill converges on the market rate.","settlesOn":"2070-08-17","settlementSource":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","refutedIf":"the buffer behind REFINANCING is observed at or above its 2025-12-31 level on 2070-08-17, measured from eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},"primitives":[{"primitive":"LIQUIDITY","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":false,"measured":false,"hasHorizon":false,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"STYLIZED","consequence":"Not measured for a euro-area member: reserve import cover is a buffer held by the Eurosystem, not one this state draws on to settle its own obligations. The equivalent reading is the Treasury cash position, which is not published on a comparable basis.","inputs":[]},{"primitive":"REFINANCING","bufferDays":16013.9,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":16013.9,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"The whole standing stock has turned over at prevailing yields; the interest bill converges on the market rate.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":143.5,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"shortTerm","value":3.2,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:F31+F41","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"balance","value":1.7,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/B9","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"interestPaid","value":3.2,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/D41PAY","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"marketYield","value":4.22,"unit":"pct","source":"ecb:IRS/M.GR.L.L40.CI.0000.EUR.N.Z","asOf":"2026-09-30","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]},{"primitive":"DEPENDENCIES","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":false,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"IDENTIFIED","consequence":"Foreign bank funding is as concentrated as 6.2 equal counterparties, though 19 are reported. The largest, US, holds 29.8% (12,023 mn USD); the three largest hold 59.9% between them. A retrenchment by the largest creditor withdraws that share of the external bank channel; whether the rest can replace it is a separate question this does not answer.","inputs":[{"name":"foreignBankClaimsUsdMillions","value":40413.005999999994,"unit":"USD mn","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.GR","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"effectiveCreditors","value":6.17,"unit":"count","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.GR","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"largestCreditorShare","value":29.750300000000003,"unit":"pct","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.GR","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"}]},{"primitive":"RESPONSE","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":true,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"Debt ratio is above the 60% reference value but falling.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":143.5,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"annualChange","value":-9.400000000000006,"unit":"pp_per_year","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD 2025-Q1→2026-Q1","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]}],"dependencies":[{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.161976,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"foreign bank funding equivalent to 6.2 equal creditors (19 reported, largest 29.8%) — bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.GR"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.1401565018473245,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"ESTIMATED","source":"derived from worldbank:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS (-5.6% of GDP, κ=2.5)"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.TERM_PREMIUM","affects":"REFINANCING","drainPerSigma":0.02229965156794425,"direction":"positive_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"short-term share 2.2% of stock (eurostat:F31+F41)"}],"transmits":[{"toEntityId":"bank-system:greece","channel":"SOVEREIGN_EXPOSURE","share":0.20272346134277772,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"ecb:CBD2/I3170/S13"}],"market":{"longTermYieldPct":4.22,"bundYieldPct":3.473,"spreadOverBundBps":75,"repricingGapBps":199,"yieldAsOf":"2026-09-30"},"note":"Horizons are buffer ÷ drain at the dates shown on each input. They say when a buffer runs out on the current trend, not that distress will occur: new financing or policy action resets them. Primitives reported as unmeasured are absent from the published statistics, not assumed to be comfortable — and a primitive under `noHorizon` is the other case entirely: it was measured, and the measurement is not a duration. Concentration is the standing example, since there is no rate at which a Herfindahl drains."}