{"ok":true,"entity":{"id":"sovereign:france","kind":"SOVEREIGN","name":"France","asOf":"2025-12-31"},"binding":{"entityId":"sovereign:france","breached":["RESPONSE"],"primitive":"REFINANCING","horizonDays":2602.7,"bindsOn":"2033-11-28","consequence":"Already above the 60% of GDP reference value and rising: fiscal room is exhausted, and consolidation is assessed rather than chosen.","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","unmeasured":["LIQUIDITY"],"noHorizon":["DEPENDENCIES"],"notBinding":[]},"claim":{"entityId":"sovereign:france","statement":"France exhausts its refinancing headroom on or before 2033-11-28 (2602.7 days) unless new resources arrive. Consequence: The whole standing stock has turned over at prevailing yields; the interest bill converges on the market rate.","settlesOn":"2033-11-28","settlementSource":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","refutedIf":"the buffer behind REFINANCING is observed at or above its 2025-12-31 level on 2033-11-28, measured from eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},"primitives":[{"primitive":"LIQUIDITY","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":false,"measured":false,"hasHorizon":false,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"STYLIZED","consequence":"Not measured for a euro-area member: reserve import cover is a buffer held by the Eurosystem, not one this state draws on to settle its own obligations. The equivalent reading is the Treasury cash position, which is not published on a comparable basis.","inputs":[]},{"primitive":"REFINANCING","bufferDays":2602.7,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":2602.7,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"The whole standing stock has turned over at prevailing yields; the interest bill converges on the market rate.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":117.6,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"shortTerm","value":10,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:F31+F41","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"balance","value":-5.1,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/B9","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"interestPaid","value":2.2,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/D41PAY","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"marketYield","value":4.44,"unit":"pct","source":"ecb:IRS/M.FR.L.L40.CI.0000.EUR.N.Z","asOf":"2026-09-30","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]},{"primitive":"DEPENDENCIES","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":false,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"IDENTIFIED","consequence":"Foreign bank funding is as concentrated as 7.9 equal counterparties, though 22 are reported. The largest, GB, holds 24.1% (448,389 mn USD); the three largest hold 50.3% between them. A retrenchment by the largest creditor withdraws that share of the external bank channel; whether the rest can replace it is a separate question this does not answer.","inputs":[{"name":"foreignBankClaimsUsdMillions","value":1864074.804,"unit":"USD mn","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.FR","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"effectiveCreditors","value":7.87,"unit":"count","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.FR","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"largestCreditorShare","value":24.0542,"unit":"pct","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.FR","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"}]},{"primitive":"RESPONSE","bufferDays":0,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":0,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"Already above the 60% of GDP reference value and rising: fiscal room is exhausted, and consolidation is assessed rather than chosen.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":117.6,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"annualChange","value":4,"unit":"pp_per_year","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD 2025-Q1→2026-Q1","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]}],"dependencies":[{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.127054,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"foreign bank funding equivalent to 7.9 equal creditors (22 reported, largest 24.1%) — bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.FR"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.008282242326343125,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"ESTIMATED","source":"derived from worldbank:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS (-0.3% of GDP, κ=2.5)"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.TERM_PREMIUM","affects":"REFINANCING","drainPerSigma":0.08503401360544217,"direction":"positive_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"short-term share 8.5% of stock (eurostat:F31+F41)"}],"transmits":[{"toEntityId":"bank-system:france","channel":"SOVEREIGN_EXPOSURE","share":0.08455705492477988,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"ecb:CBD2/I3170/S13"}],"market":{"longTermYieldPct":4.44,"bundYieldPct":3.473,"spreadOverBundBps":97,"repricingGapBps":257,"yieldAsOf":"2026-09-30"},"note":"Horizons are buffer ÷ drain at the dates shown on each input. They say when a buffer runs out on the current trend, not that distress will occur: new financing or policy action resets them. Primitives reported as unmeasured are absent from the published statistics, not assumed to be comfortable — and a primitive under `noHorizon` is the other case entirely: it was measured, and the measurement is not a duration. Concentration is the standing example, since there is no rate at which a Herfindahl drains."}