{"ok":true,"entity":{"id":"sovereign:czechia","kind":"SOVEREIGN","name":"Czechia","asOf":"2025-12-31"},"binding":{"entityId":"sovereign:czechia","breached":[],"primitive":"LIQUIDITY","horizonDays":232.7,"bindsOn":"2027-06-03","consequence":"Stress-adjusted reserve cover falls below the three-month adequacy floor. If the buffer keeps draining, external payments or the exchange rate must absorb the adjustment.","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","unmeasured":[],"noHorizon":["DEPENDENCIES"],"notBinding":[]},"claim":{"entityId":"sovereign:czechia","statement":"Czechia exhausts its liquid resources on or before 2027-06-03 (232.7 days) unless new resources arrive. Consequence: Stress-adjusted reserve cover falls below the three-month adequacy floor. If the buffer keeps draining, external payments or the exchange rate must absorb the adjustment.","settlesOn":"2027-06-03","settlementSource":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","refutedIf":"the buffer behind LIQUIDITY is observed at or above its 2025-12-31 level on 2027-06-03, measured from eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},"primitives":[{"primitive":"LIQUIDITY","bufferDays":232.7,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":232.7,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"Stress-adjusted reserve cover falls below the three-month adequacy floor. If the buffer keeps draining, external payments or the exchange rate must absorb the adjustment.","inputs":[{"name":"reserveImportCover","value":7.64375278763752,"unit":"months","source":"worldbank:FI.RES.TOTL.MO","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]},{"primitive":"REFINANCING","bufferDays":3469.9,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":3469.9,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"The whole standing stock has turned over at prevailing yields; the interest bill converges on the market rate.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":44.1,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"shortTerm","value":2.3000000000000003,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:F31+F41","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"balance","value":-2.1,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/B9","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"interestPaid","value":1.3,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/D41PAY","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"marketYield","value":5.24,"unit":"pct","source":"ecb:IRS/M.CZ.L.L40.CI.0000.CZK.N.Z","asOf":"2026-09-30","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]},{"primitive":"DEPENDENCIES","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":false,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"IDENTIFIED","consequence":"Foreign bank funding is as concentrated as 4.1 equal counterparties, though 20 are reported. The largest, AT, holds 36.7% (148,639 mn USD); the three largest hold 80.5% between them. A retrenchment by the largest creditor withdraws that share of the external bank channel; whether the rest can replace it is a separate question this does not answer.","inputs":[{"name":"foreignBankClaimsUsdMillions","value":404798.457,"unit":"USD mn","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.CZ","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"effectiveCreditors","value":4.07,"unit":"count","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.CZ","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"largestCreditorShare","value":36.7193,"unit":"pct","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.CZ","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"}]},{"primitive":"RESPONSE","bufferDays":7259.3,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":7259.3,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"The debt ratio crosses the 60% of GDP reference value: fiscal room runs out and the adjustment stops being discretionary.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":44.1,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"annualChange","value":0.8000000000000043,"unit":"pp_per_year","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD 2025-Q1→2026-Q1","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"balance","value":-2.1,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/B9","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]}],"dependencies":[{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.245744,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"foreign bank funding equivalent to 4.1 equal creditors (20 reported, largest 36.7%) — bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.CZ"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.TERM_PREMIUM","affects":"REFINANCING","drainPerSigma":0.052154195011337875,"direction":"positive_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"short-term share 5.2% of stock (eurostat:F31+F41)"}],"transmits":[{"toEntityId":"bank-system:czechia","channel":"SOVEREIGN_EXPOSURE","share":0.16853703120649383,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"ecb:CBD2/I3170/S13"}],"market":{"longTermYieldPct":5.24,"bundYieldPct":3.473,"spreadOverBundBps":177,"repricingGapBps":229,"yieldAsOf":"2026-09-30"},"note":"Horizons are buffer ÷ drain at the dates shown on each input. They say when a buffer runs out on the current trend, not that distress will occur: new financing or policy action resets them. Primitives reported as unmeasured are absent from the published statistics, not assumed to be comfortable — and a primitive under `noHorizon` is the other case entirely: it was measured, and the measurement is not a duration. Concentration is the standing example, since there is no rate at which a Herfindahl drains."}