{"ok":true,"entity":{"id":"sovereign:bulgaria","kind":"SOVEREIGN","name":"Bulgaria","asOf":"2025-12-31"},"binding":{"entityId":"sovereign:bulgaria","breached":[],"primitive":"RESPONSE","horizonDays":2397,"bindsOn":"2033-05-06","consequence":"The debt ratio crosses the 60% of GDP reference value: fiscal room runs out and the adjustment stops being discretionary.","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","unmeasured":["LIQUIDITY"],"noHorizon":["DEPENDENCIES"],"notBinding":[]},"claim":{"entityId":"sovereign:bulgaria","statement":"Bulgaria exhausts its policy and balance-sheet room to respond on or before 2033-05-06 (2397 days) unless new resources arrive. Consequence: The debt ratio crosses the 60% of GDP reference value: fiscal room runs out and the adjustment stops being discretionary.","settlesOn":"2033-05-06","settlementSource":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","refutedIf":"the buffer behind RESPONSE is observed at or above its 2025-12-31 level on 2033-05-06, measured from eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},"primitives":[{"primitive":"LIQUIDITY","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":false,"measured":false,"hasHorizon":false,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"STYLIZED","consequence":"Not measured for a euro-area member: reserve import cover is a buffer held by the Eurosystem, not one this state draws on to settle its own obligations. The equivalent reading is the Treasury cash position, which is not published on a comparable basis.","inputs":[]},{"primitive":"REFINANCING","bufferDays":2974.2,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":2974.2,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"The whole standing stock has turned over at prevailing yields; the interest bill converges on the market rate.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":28.5,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"shortTerm","value":0,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:F31+F41","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"balance","value":-3.5,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/B9","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"interestPaid","value":0.8,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/D41PAY","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"marketYield","value":4.09,"unit":"pct","source":"ecb:IRS/M.BG.L.L40.CI.0000.EUR.N.Z","asOf":"2026-09-30","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]},{"primitive":"DEPENDENCIES","bufferDays":null,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":false,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":null,"evidence":"IDENTIFIED","consequence":"Foreign bank funding is as concentrated as 3.3 equal counterparties, though 19 are reported. The largest, IT, holds 36.7% (21,237 mn USD); the three largest hold 93.3% between them. A retrenchment by the largest creditor withdraws that share of the external bank channel; whether the rest can replace it is a separate question this does not answer.","inputs":[{"name":"foreignBankClaimsUsdMillions","value":57889.019,"unit":"USD mn","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.BG","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"effectiveCreditors","value":3.32,"unit":"count","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.BG","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"},{"name":"largestCreditorShare","value":36.6854,"unit":"pct","source":"bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.BG","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"IDENTIFIED"}]},{"primitive":"RESPONSE","bufferDays":2397,"notBinding":false,"measured":true,"hasHorizon":true,"drainMultiplier":1,"horizonDays":2397,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","consequence":"The debt ratio crosses the 60% of GDP reference value: fiscal room runs out and the adjustment stops being discretionary.","inputs":[{"name":"debt","value":28.5,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"annualChange","value":4.800000000000001,"unit":"pp_per_year","source":"eurostat:gov_10q_ggdebt/GD 2025-Q1→2026-Q1","asOf":"2026-03-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"},{"name":"balance","value":-3.5,"unit":"pct_gdp","source":"eurostat:gov_10dd_edpt1/B9","asOf":"2025-12-31","evidence":"STRUCTURAL"}]}],"dependencies":[{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.301577,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"foreign bank funding equivalent to 3.3 equal creditors (19 reported, largest 36.7%) — bis:WS_CBS_PUB/Q.S..4R.U.C.A.A.TO1.A.BG"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.CAPITAL_SUPPLY","affects":"LIQUIDITY","drainPerSigma":0.14607855811170775,"direction":"negative_hurts","evidence":"ESTIMATED","source":"derived from worldbank:BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS (-5.8% of GDP, κ=2.5)"},{"nodeId":"GLOBAL.TERM_PREMIUM","affects":"REFINANCING","drainPerSigma":0,"direction":"positive_hurts","evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"short-term share 0.0% of stock (eurostat:F31+F41)"}],"transmits":[{"toEntityId":"bank-system:bulgaria","channel":"SOVEREIGN_EXPOSURE","share":0.16313336270579012,"evidence":"STRUCTURAL","source":"ecb:CBD2/I3170/S13"}],"market":{"longTermYieldPct":4.09,"bundYieldPct":3.473,"spreadOverBundBps":62,"repricingGapBps":128,"yieldAsOf":"2026-09-30"},"note":"Horizons are buffer ÷ drain at the dates shown on each input. They say when a buffer runs out on the current trend, not that distress will occur: new financing or policy action resets them. Primitives reported as unmeasured are absent from the published statistics, not assumed to be comfortable — and a primitive under `noHorizon` is the other case entirely: it was measured, and the measurement is not a duration. Concentration is the standing example, since there is no rate at which a Herfindahl drains."}